If current trends are maintained, you can expect to see more Democrats in cowboy hats in the future, a new Center for Rural Studies report indicates.
Key findings:
No significant ideological shift: 50% of respondents still call themselves conservatives.
Significant drop in Bush’s approval: he’s polling at 44%, down 10 since his reelection and down 22 since 2002.
Rural voters are currently favoring Democrats in both Presidential and Congressional races, but these leads are within the margin of error.
Finally, almost 60% of respondents know someone serving in Iraq, though a plurality still support “staying the course.”
What does this mean? While the numbers aren’t convincing us that a whole lot has changed, it’s starting to look like the resurgance of Democratic performance in rural areas last cycle wasn’t just a fluke. We might also hope to see a return to the near-parity that President Clinton’s campaigns scored, and as soon as 2008.
The most pointed question is this: Which, if any, Democratic candidates can deliver the rural vote?
That’s a question I’m honestly not prepared to answer some 18 months out. I’ll be thinking on it, I assure you, and I’ll be sharing my thoughts.