June 17, 2007 by Alpha.

The fine folks over at Pollster.com are much better stats wonks than I am. Plus, they make pretty charts! I encourage you to keep an eye on their site in coming months, as their coverage of the 2006 election was excellent.

One of my favorite things to do is look at the trends they estimate for various polls. The set of these that excite me most are the aggregated poll results for the upcoming Democratic and Republican Presidential nominations.

On the Republican side, the big story of the last six months is a man who isn’t even in the race (yet). At the first of the year, Fred Thompson was polling right around zero. His rise since then has been meteoric, and has been accompanied by losses for Giuliani, McCain and Gingrich.

Here are the scores for the first of the year (approximate) and the current trend for the five major Republican candidates:

Six Months Ago            Today
Giuliani:                 32%                      27%
McCain:                 24%                      17%
Gingrich:               10%                      7.3%
Romney:                7%                       9.9%
Thompson, F.:        1%                     16.3%

Fred Thompson is rapidly approaching the level of political rockstar, which is interesting for three reasons. First, he hasn’t discussed seriously his positions on any of the key issues. Second, he has spent most of the last decade in Hollywood, where he hasn’t been speaking publicly (until recently) or, again, publicly taking any positions on any of the issues this Republic faces. Third, the only paper record we have of Thompson’s behavior in government, from his time in Congress, seems to indicate that he was a knee-jerk conservative and a lousy statesman. Of course, George Bush had had less success in his life when he was nominated and elected, so who really knows what this all means?

Here’s my prediction: Thompson will waste no time in embarrassing himself through some series of gaffs or through a total lack of Presidential aptitude. As Thompson’s campaign fades, so to will McCain’s: his conservative  bona fides are all there but there’s only so far anti-war Republicans will follow John “the War Candidate” McCain. I see a Giuliani/Romney horserace coming to a crescendo right around next February, with Romney ultimately getting to nod. Mitt’s got the looks and the bearing, and as long as he can stop alienating working class Republicans he should secure the nomination.
I’ll get the companion piece to this entry, complete with some predictions about the Democratic nomination, in the next couple of days.

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June 17, 2007 by Stuck In Spokane.

Condos are good for Spokane and so is urban development.

That’s what we keep being told by everyone; city council members, the mayor, the newspaper, and quite literally anyone else who has the ability to influence public perception. Yet at the same time, the city pushes the slogan near nature, near perfect. Part of that appeal is that Spokane, despite it’s growth, has still maintained a somewhat “small town” appeal. This shift in tactics by the city will eventually lead to the destruction of this atmosphere and Spokane will be just one more urban sprawl.

Recently Spokane has had three controversial condominium developments receive approval from the city of Spokane. First there was the Peaceful Valley fiasco, where the city backed down because they were worried about lawsuits from the property owners, and decided instead to destroy one of the oldest neighborhoods in Spokane. Next up was Kendall Yards, the city decided it must act or risk the growth and redevelopment of downtown Spokane.

But making downtown a non-affordable yuppy-ville is not enough. The city wants to force more people out, and to do so they’re willing to force people to spend massive amounts of money to maintain their houses, or risk destuction. That’s exactly what will happen if the city allows Yong Lewis to move ahead with his “Tuscan Ridge” project.

Tuscan Ridge is a development that has just received approval from the city. It is a 30 building development just off of 57th and Hatch Road. An area that has had it’s fair share of structural problems. The hillside is one of the most erosive in the area and several houses in the vicinity have needed shoring up due to erosion. So if housing further up, on more stable ground already required shoring up, what will happen to housing built halfway on the hillside need? What will happen in 10 years with increased traffic, and more wear and tear on the hillside? It will cause accelerated erosion that will require the residents of the area to spend far more money to keep their houses on the hillside rather then roadside to Highway 195.

So folks, if your looking for a quick ticket out, the City of Spokane has just the place for you, head to Tuscan Ridge.

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