Democratic Presidential Primary Preview

June 26, 2007 by Alpha.

Whereas the Republican Presidential nomination is developing into something approaching a cohesive narrative (Giuliani and McCain collapsing, Fred Thompson fizzling, and Mitt Romney picking up the proverbial spare) the Democratic picture remains murky. Here are the national polling numbers:

Six Months Ago/Today
Clinton: 35% / 34.4%
Obama: 18% / 22.6%
Edwards: 12% / 12.4%
(Gore): 12.5% / 15.9%

Hillary Clinton has a huge cash-on-hand advantage, that should serve her well as February 5th approaches. Her fundraising numbers for Q2 are rumored to be low, but my gut tells me her campaign is sandbagging. Her campaign has, however, started showing signs of “fruntrunnerosis,” from the quirky selection and announcement of her “campaign theme” to the downright strangeness of the Clinton webteam’s own Drudge-style newsfeed. And although she leads decisively in national polls and holds leads in New Hampshire, Nevada and Florida, she’s lost traction in South Carolina and Iowa. If her national ad machine can’t make Super Duper Tuesday a big victory, Hillary might face big troubles.

The biggest present threat to Clinton comes from Barack Obama, who shows a recent but sizeable lead in South Carolina and who beat Clinton’s mark for primary-funding in Q1. He is hugely popular with younger voters, and has the netroots support to drive that crowd to the polls. The big questions hanging over Obama now are ones that only he can put to rest: Is America ready for a President with a black dad? Is Obama ready for the White House?

John Edwards, though locked in third for the last several months, is still sitting on more than enough cash to mount an effective advertising blitz going into February. He has an excellent staff and he enjoys a significant lead in grassroots organizing in many states, particularly Iowa, where he leads in polling. Edwards certainly has everything he needs at this point to be a contender, but if he wins it will be a thrilling race.

And then there’s the rest of the pack. These five candidates are all strong(ish) but are more marked by question marks than by exclamation points. Will Joe Biden let Sam Brownback steal his Three-State Solution for Iraq? Will Chris Dodd impress, well, anyone? How did Dennis Kucinich land his wife? Is Mike Gravel older than Bob Dole? What’s Bill Richardson’s strategy for dealing with the fact that he is hispanic in the middle of a truly ugly immigration debate? Finally, just how long is Al Gore going to continue getting asked if he’s running? If he’s said it once, he’s said it a thousand times: “Well, not right now, no.”

I strongly doubt that, with the amounts of money being raised by the top three candidates, any of the second-tier fellows will make it through the end of the year. That said, a certain Arkansas governor made quite a splash in 1992, have been ranked as low as 13th in primary polling. Who the heck knows what will happen?

Edwards has raised enough to keep up the fight till the end, no matter how bitter. But realistically, his numbers can’t compare to the $20M+ Clinton and Obama have raised, especially given the frontloading of next year’s primaries. The Obama/Clinton fight is going to be an ugly one: Clinton’s certitude against Obama’s optimism; Clinton’s cold calculation against Obama’s apparent improvisation; Clinton’s triangulation against Obama’s guesstimation; Clinton’s ineptitude against Obama’s inexperience.

Then there’s the elephant in the room. A woman? Competing against a man? Who is only half white? This is madness. You’d think that the Democratic party had turned into some kind of heathen land, where people who weren’t white men could, maybe, just maybe, have a shot at the Presidency.

In all seriousness, we have to ask ourselves which prejudice is more entrenched, and getting liberals to freely discuss a quantitative or even qualitative comparison of racism and sexism isn’t my job. If it were, I’d demand a big raise.

I’ll cut right to it: Hillary has a lead among women, but she trails among men. Obama looks good among African-American voters, but that difference is smaller. Is it possible that women like a woman who frequently gets called masculine more than blacks like a man who is… mulatto? I think so, unfortunately.

During the 2000 election, a friend asked me who I thought the United States would elect first: a black man or a white woman. As I said then, I say now that sexism runs deeper than racism. The big problem with that is that Barack Obama apparently isn’t qite black enough. The mulatto problem, one which has been close to my heart for some time, won’t be solved by Barack Obama’s candidacy.

Barring a significant mistake by the Clinton campaign, or an unprecedented act of sheer genius by the Obama camp, I’m picking Hillary Clinton to face off against Mitt “the Glove” Romney next year.

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