A Primary Primer(R)
December 15, 2007 by Alpha.
A few days ago I realized, with a touch of humility, that I knew astonishingly little about the nuts and bolts of the Pesidential primary process outside of a vague understanding of how nominating conventions work. Quickly! to Wikipedia!
There are actually two remarkably informative Wikipedia entries: one for the Dems and another for the GOP. Unfortunately, I couldn’t find (properly filed) pages for the Green Party or the Constitution Party or the Communist Party, so I don’t know that I’d call this a thorough digest, but some interesting notes arose regardless.
First off, a topic I haven’t heard mentioned much: The Phantom Primaries!
The Republican Party of the great state of Wyoming, no doubt in a riotous fit of pique, decided in late August to get out in front of the bus, so to speak. The National Party penalized them–half of their 28 delegates. They’ve earned the right to be an early bump in the road, but it will be an awfully small one: 24 days later Florida will assign 57 (out of a possible 114 rating a D-).
This takes us into the Early Primaries!
The Republicans will assign just 229 delegates in 8 states before February 5th. The way the polling looks right now, here’s what that means in terms of the numbers of delegates we can expect to see early on:
- Iowa: Huckabee takes 11, maybe more. Romney needs to get 10 to have any juice going into the stretch. If any of the other candidates takes more than 5 delegates, it will probably be because another candidate got the ol’ goose-egg.
- Wyoming: I still haven’t seen any polling here. The Wyoming caucus will end up doling out over 6% of the pre-Feb. 5 delegates, more than the number New Hampshire will yield. And since I’ve seen no polling, I can’t help but see Wyoming as a chance for someone in the pack to make a big splash.
- New Hampshire is big because it’s the first winner-take-all contest. Even though it’s the smallest state (in terms of delegates) before Feb. 5, New Hampshire is the first opportunity for a deathblow to be dealt. The trend in polling favors Romney, though Huckabee leads in some recent polls. A win here for either may establish a clear front-runner, but if either finishes beyond third it could spell curtains.
- Michigan could pose a problem for Huckabee, as his gains of late have only just gotten him out of the cellar. Romney carries a hefty lead, followed closely by Giuliani, then McCain who is just now freefalling past Huckabee.
- Nevada’s caucuses favor Giuliani and Romney as well, but over the last several weeks every candidate other than Huckabee has been losing support, while he gains.
- South Carolina’s primary will depend very heavily on what happens leading up to it. Right now both Romney and Huckabee have significant momentum, but the road to SC could cripple either of them.
Then on February 5th, another 1,081 delegates will be assigned, and that flood seems likely to wipe away most of the competition.
That brings me to the big finish: Keys to Victory!
- Huckabee needs to perform in Iowa. Not just do well at the caucuses, but to do well gracefully. Then he will need a strong performance in Wyoming, or a miracle in New Hampshire or Michigan.
- Giuliani needs to survive till the Feb. 5 with some dignity intact. That may be impossible, as he trails in every primary state before Florida on Jan. 29. If Giuliani is still standing on Jan. 30, he may start to see daylight.
- Romney needs to put the pedal to the metal, especially in New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina-even narrow wins in those three states would launch him ahead of any competition and make him the clear favorite going into Florida, which would be his to take from Giuliani.
- McCain is bleeding. As far as I can tell, the only reason he’s still in the race is because if he drops out, he’ll be asked to endorse someone, which might disqualify him from a shot at the VP slot. A sudden shift in Iraq might help him, but I can’t imagine what sort of event it would take.
- Thompson would need to clean up in Wyoming, then make an articulate, direct, moving acceptance speech. Only if Jan. 5 is very very good for him does he pose a threat on Jan. 8 or later.
- Paul would need a series of scandals so tawdry as to offend even the Republican base–no mean feat for someone without a D after his or her name. Of course, anything is possible… Maybe a volcano? Or landsharks?
Well there you have it. I’ve handicapped to Republican race through Florida… Sort of. A similar breakdown for the Dems is on its way!
Okay, now you go.