Here’ s my best guess about what will happen in the early Republican primaries. This is based largely on my own analysis of polling data and my own gut feelings about where things are going.
I expect former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee to win the Iowa Caucuses. His appeal seems to be broad-based and his Iowa campaign has practically caught fire. The response that he has gotten in polling there has been dramatic, if not especially predictive. Take a look at this image from Pollster.com for a good sense of how hot Huckabee’s mojo is. I suspect that Huckabee is playing well with rural Iowa Republicans particularly those who really liked Romney or Giuliani five or six months ago. Of course, at that point Rudy and Mitt really were the only game in town. These days in Iowa you might as well be a McCain fan. Seriously, take a look at that graph again: two candidates’ curves have positive slopes; Paul, in last place; and Huckabee, in first. At this point, anyone other than Romney spending money in Iowa is wasting their contributors’ money. Call it Huckabee, then Romney, then the also-rans.
Wyoming is a tough call. They like ‘em good and conservative in Wyoming–but a number of the precincts in Western Wyoming are heavily Mormon. I suspect that Romney will end up with about half the delegates, with Huckabee picking up four or five delegates, with a few going to McCain for old times’ sake. Of course, in the case of anything other than a Romney blowout the story will be not about how huge his win was but on how little it counts for.
Romney, Huckabee and McCain all have some momentum in New Hampshire. Romney has a healthy lead, but if Huckabee hits Iowa hard, he could well a victory. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that both Romney and McCain will collapse in New Hampshire, with the finish going: Huckabee, Romney, McCain.
I anticipate the continued deflation of Guiliani’s campaign, and I suspect that Romney’s money will run out. Either one might make some hay in Michigan ad Nevada, but I expect South Carolina and Florida’s primaries to fall to Huckabee.
If he can keep the winner’s smile on and make a big show when FEC time comes up, Huckabee has the best shot. He seems to have the religious thing and the spunky underdog thing going for him.
Huckabee’s biggest worries aren’t small: He needs Romney and Giuliani to go down like a pair of wounded U2’s over Russia. If they manage to muddy the waters as they go down or if they manage to raise enough money to keep at it once they start losing they could wound him. Lastly, if he doesn’t pick up Nevada or South Carolina or Florida his position on February 5th is tenuous.
These fears notwithstanding, I expect Huckabee to be the candidate to beat going into Super Duper Tuesday.
