Iowa is a three-way toss-up between Clinton and Obama and Edwards. The biggest question is one which I have no good way to answer: who has more rural support in Iowa? Not a clue. Although I expect that Clinton has higher rural negatives she has an excellent ground game. She also has more at-large delegates endorsing her. I’m going to play it safe and take Clinton first, followed by Obama and Edwards.
New Hampshire has a larger percentage of undecided voters than Iowa, Obama has more momentum and a much closer margin on Clinton. Barring a disastrous showing in Iowa, I expect Obama to take New Hampshire, followed by Clinton then Edwards.
After a Clinton victory lap in Michigan I anticipate Nevada to go Clinton/Obama/Edwards, assuming Edwards is still in the race.
South Carolina is Obama’s firewall state, and I think he will win it.
The exhibition match in Florida is a toss-up, and so is February 5th, but I personally think that Senator Barack Obama is the candidate to beat, or as John Madden might say “Al, there’s a guy who controls his own, ah… his um… his future.”
PS The Huckster now leads in national polling. Is this story making itself? Discuss!