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February 5, 2008 by Alpha.
Today’s going to be a hell of a day.
Check this out. While it isn’t the most accurate or fair statement, I can certainly appreciate pith in the face of fact-checkery.
A lot of what is being discussed right now is about who will win today, but I want to take a moment to consider what the win conditions are for each candidate.
Hillary Clinton: Clinton needs to shut Obama out in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Deleware AND she needs to keep California, Massachusetts and Missouri close. So long as she can claim to have won where she was supposed to and so long as Obama doesn’t blow her out anywhere other than Illinois or maybe Georgia she won’t lose much stock.
Barack Obama: If Obama can take one of the states in New England AND win two from California, Massachusetts and Missouri he can call it a great day. Note that there’s room for an outcome where nether candidate can declare much of a victory, and for a solution where both candidates can trumpet their successes. I’d bank on the latter, myself.
John McCain: A McCain win looks like a big blowout-and for good reason. While a death blow is unlikely, if McCain can win everywhere other than Utah, Massachusetts, Colorado, Georgia and Tennessee (and the already-decided West Virginia), he can be very happy with the results.
Mitt Romney: Romney needs a big night. He would need to take Utah, Massachusetts, Colorado, Georgia OR Tennessee and he would need to overperform (tie?) in California and Missouri. Even then, he can expect to come out of tonight behind in the delegate count–this isn’t about putting McCain away, it’s about staying alive while the social conservatives decide who to back and fending off Mike Huckabee.
Mike Huckabee: He’s got West Virginia, but he’ll need to kick some butts in the South–Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennesee, Oklahoma, Missouri are all states he’s competing in, mostly competing with Mitt Romney. It may be that he’s pulling for second, but if he can knock off Romney it puts a serious shine on his future, if nothing else.
Thoughts?
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