December 30, 2007 by Alpha.

Iowa is a three-way toss-up between Clinton and Obama and Edwards. The biggest question is one which I have no good way to answer: who has more rural support in Iowa? Not a clue. Although I expect that Clinton has higher rural negatives she has an excellent ground game. She also has more at-large delegates endorsing her. I’m going to play it safe and take Clinton first, followed by Obama and Edwards.

New Hampshire has a larger percentage of undecided voters than Iowa, Obama has more momentum and a much closer margin on Clinton. Barring a disastrous showing in Iowa, I expect Obama to take New Hampshire, followed by Clinton then Edwards.

After a Clinton victory lap in Michigan I anticipate Nevada to go Clinton/Obama/Edwards, assuming Edwards is still in the race.

South Carolina is Obama’s firewall state, and I think he will win it.

The exhibition match in Florida is a toss-up, and so is February 5th, but I personally think that Senator Barack Obama is the candidate to beat, or as John Madden might say “Al, there’s a guy who controls his own, ah… his um… his future.”

PS The Huckster now leads in national polling. Is this story making itself? Discuss!

Posted in Democrats, 2008, Presidential, Campaigns | 1 Comment »

December 18, 2007 by Alpha.

About a week ago, it entered my mind to try to lay out what the big variables would be in the first part of the primary kerfluffle. I figured that if I could tease out some details I might find that one or another candidate might have some kind of procedural advantage. On the Republican side I found some pretty clear victory conditions for each of the candidates. If you haven’t seen that post, it can be found here.

While any of the Republican candidates has about a 50/50 chance of making it through the 8 contests they’ll have before February 5th and thence into the madness of Super Duper Tuesday, the Democrats seem committed to, well, not committing. My first topic: The Phantom Primaries!

Everyone in politics is aware that those who work for a state party ought to refrain from dissing the national party. Unfortunately for Democratic voters in Florida and Michigan, some of the Democratic leadership in their states seem to have missed that point. Both states moved their primaries up, both were warned of sanctions coming, and neither have done anything about it. The way it looks right now, neither of those primary votes will count: Michigan’s 157 delegates and Florida’s 210 delegates will be disqualified.

Both of these early winner-take-all primaries would likely have significantly aided Senator Clinton. The poll results may still give her a boost, but she may take some heat, too: she is the only major candidate to reject the national party’s rulings and campaign in those states.

This takes us into the Early Primaries!

In all, the Democrats will have 6 contests before Feb. 5 including those in Michigan and Florida. Here’s how I expect them to shake out:

• Iowa looks extra-exciting, with Edwards, Obama and Clinton all looking at picking up between 13 and 16 delegates. More here than in any other contest before Feb. 5, the candidates need to woo superdelegates (federal level elected officials and high-level party officials) who get to choose for themselves. Clinton has the most endorsements from superdelegates, so she might look to run away with Iowa. But if Obama or Edwards wins the people of Iowa, I have a hard time seeing those superdelegates turning on them.
• New Hampshire is similarly messy. While Clinton maintains a healthy lead in terms of the trends, Obama is picking up a head of steam even showing a lead in recent polling there. Edwards is again a sound third place.
• Michigan, whose delegates will likely not count at the nominating convention, is very likely to go to Clinton, as she holds a 25 point lead on Obama. That could well change, however, if Obama and Edwards beat Clinton in Iowa and if Obama wins New Hampshire.
• Nevada’s caucuses favor Clinton as they favor Giuliani and Romney. I anticipate that as the date approaches we will see some significant movement in polling. She currently stands to pick up about twice as many delegates as Obama (and four times as many as Edwards), but depending on how things shake out in Iowa and New Hampshire Obama or Edwards could have the exposure and money to pick up some rural delegates.
• South Carolina’s primary will probably narrow the field significantly. It’s likely that both Biden and Richardson will be through at this point. I anticipate that no more than two candidates will survive to participate in the festivities of February 5th.

On Super Duper Tuesday, the Democrats will assign another 2,064 delegates. On the Republican side I estimated that the odds of multiple candidates surviving the sheer volume of voting were slim. However, given the massive bankrolls of the top three Democratic candidates and the fact that (Clinton aside) they’re faced with at most four contests before Feb. 5, I wouldn’t be surprised if the votes were more or less split.

Once again, to the big finish: Keys to Victory!

• Clinton needs to show even with Obama in Iowa. She scores bonus points if she wins (no matter how narrowly) and if Edwards does well. A tight pack gives her maximum momentum going into New Hampshire. Her likely, albeit symbolic, victory in Michigan would put her in position to run the table. There’s a reason Senator Clinton’s name gets mentioned first.
• Obama needs to win Iowa. The bigger the victory the better. It appears as though the momentum is swinging his way at the moment, but the loss of the Register’s endorsement is a major one if only for the size of the story itself. A win, especially with poor performance from Clinton (and even Edwards) might put in over the top in New Hampshire. Even in this scenario, a Michigan loss seems unavoidable, but if Obama can pick up Nevada or South Carolina there’s a good chance he can win (or at least stay in the game) through Feb. 5. In that case, things will get very interesting.
• Edwards needs a perfect storm. If he can win in Iowa, and he must, he seems to be out of options. The simple fact is that he runs third in all the other contests before Feb. 5. Short of some kind of political Hail Mary (or maybe Statue of Liberty?) Edwards’ goose is cooked. I would suggest a Ciceronian treatise on the value of justice in a manifestly unjust world, but that’s just me.
• Biden needs… well, I’ve never been certain that Biden was really running for President. He certainly has all the foreign policy experience to make sense when he talks about ‘the Iraq,’ but he was never able to gain much traction on domestic issues. I’m thinking he’s really running for Secretary of State.
• Richardson… Richardson has his sights set higher. As Bob Russell joked, “If you squint real hard and tilt you head just so, it looks an awful lot like the Seal of the President of the United States.”

That’s it, boys and girls. My well-considered analysis of the Democratic and Republican primaries through February 5th.

I’ll post my Up/Down predictions in the next couple of days.

Posted in Democrats, 2008, Presidential, Campaigns | 3 Comments »

December 10, 2007 by Stuck In Spokane.

Chris Gregoire has an important deadline coming up, a blackout period during which she cannot raise money for her re-election campaign, this is due to the legislature going into session. She has put out a plea to good Democrat’s to help her maintain her fundraising lead over Dino Rossi, and I for one intend to help her maintain that lead.

Click Here to Contribute to Chris’ Campaign

Every dollar will help her maintain a lead on the slime machine that is Dino Rossi and the state Repuglican party. We know that Chris has done great things for this state and will continue to do so in her next term, we just don’t want the start of her second to kick off on the same note as the last one. So please, everyone, donate what you can be it a dollar, five dollars, or even their maximum of 2,800 dollars!

There are many good Democrats running for other offices in the state that will not be limited by the legislature being in session, one of which is Peter Goldmark. He is running for Commissioner of Public Lands, a post that usually does not get much attention, despite how important it is to the environment around us. Peter is running to unseat 2-term incumbent Doug Sutherland, a man who has sold off our public lands to timber interests at Black Friday sale prices, and if re-elected will continue to rape our poor state to the point that we can no longer claim to live in the “Evergreen State.”

Click Here to Contribute to Peter’s Campaign

Please, do what you can to help these two worthy candidate out, they both are working to make the Washington we live in a better place to live.

Posted in Christine Gregoire, Dino Rossi, Governor, Democrats, Peter Goldmark, Elections, Commissioner of Public Lands, 2008, Washington | 1 Comment »

August 23, 2007 by Stuck In Spokane.

Recently, at an evening meeting at David’s Pizza, a new Democratic organization was formed here in Spokane. It was a group of 20 and 30-something Democrats who have all been involved in the political process, whether on campaigns, or as activists. They organized to have a social network of other Democrats of similar experiences and also to discuss how to further Democratic causes in the area.

They have agreed to meet regularly and to host trainings to improve their ability to assist local Democrats. Tonight they are hosting a training for the new Democratic Voter File, so that everyone is prepared for the upcoming election in 2008.

If you are of like mind, age and are looking for a similar group, contact me at info@spokompton.net and I will put you in contact with this group. Spokane needs more active involvement from younger Democrats, so please step forward.

Posted in Democrats | 1 Comment »